Methods & limitations
Count the dots. Look at the resources. Then plan your second settlement.
With two fair dice, a 6 has five chances out of 36; a 9 has four; a 10 has three. Each dot represents one of those 36 equally likely outcomes.
12/36 expected cards per roll.
On average over 36 rolls:
9 ore + 3 wheat.
Supplies ore and wheat for cities. Wood, brick and sheep still need another source.
11/36 expected cards per roll.
On average over 36 rolls:
4 wood + 4 brick + 3 sheep.
Supplies wood and brick for roads. Wheat and ore still need another source.
These are averages, not a promise for your next 36 rolls. The example assumes one settlement touching all three tiles, fair independent dice, no robber blocking them and enough resource cards in the bank. The bars share a scale of 15 dots. They compare production, not chances of winning.
A produces slightly more cards on average. B provides more resource types. Neither is always the better opening: your second settlement, ports, road access and the other players' choices matter.
The analyzer combines dice weights, resource mix, board-wide scarcity, harbor fit and expansion opportunities. Opening pairs also consider which cards the second settlement gives you.
These are rules-based scores, not measured win probabilities or proof of the best move.
Building estimates use average production and bank or owned-harbor trades. They allow fractional cards to compare supply. Each building is evaluated separately.
They are not expected waiting times. Actual dice rolls, player trades, robber losses, discards and limited bank stock can change the result.
Seat advice compares four deterministic opponent styles: overall value, cities, roads and production. They follow the opening order and settlement distance rule.
A spot staying open in three examples does not mean it has a 75% chance of staying open in your game.
Road advice looks up to four edges ahead and respects recorded settlements and roads. Other players can still take a suggested destination later.
Generated boards meet the chosen setup constraints. This does not establish equal winning chances for every seat.
Opening practice supports Classic 3–4 player boards. Choose two settlements and their initial roads, compare alternatives, then retry. Its deterministic opponents repeat their choices for the same position.
Expanded-board analysis includes 5–6 player seat examples. Opening practice and photo alignment currently support the Classic board. Seafarers generation covers the documented scenarios; it does not provide settlement or ship strategy analysis.
Use the official CATAN rulebooks for your edition's rules. Our recommendations are an independent interpretation built on those rules, not an official CATAN rating.
Analysis model version: 2.0. This explanation describes the model's assumptions; it is not evidence of validation against real game outcomes.